As we did 14 months ago, The Kelsey Group has again set out to build a comprehensive five-year forecast of the global directional media marketplace. For this years forecast, we have decided to issue two documents. This narrative is intended to provide an overview and the subtext to accompany an extensive presentation document (PowerPoint) for our clients that covers the major areas of the forecast. We have shared some of the top-level findings of this forecast with the public.
Our goal last time, as it is this time, is to provide a rigorous and independent forecast that is not biased by association with a particular market segment, financial market or industry trade association.
Our approach to developing this forecast is similar to that followed in our previous forecasting effort: We have built the forecast product by product, company by company, country by country and region by region. Our bottoms-up forecast is the product of considerable analysis and synthesis and is informed by industry-wide data, public financial filings and key executive interviews. The forecast also relies on many implications drawn from our own proprietary research among small and medium-sized businesses and consumers.
The Kelsey Group estimates that at the end of 2004, global directional media recorded revenues of US$28.8 billion and that by the end of 2009, this market will increase to over US$39 billion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3 percent. This would suggest that the share of directional media relative to the total global advertising market will increase from 5.5 percent in 2004 to 6.3 percent by 2009.
We estimate directional media reached US$12.6 billion in 2004 in Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific and throughout the rest of the world. This represents about 44 percent of the global directional media industry. We forecast directional media for markets outside North America to reach US$16.9 billion by 2009, growing at an annual CAGR of 6.1 percent.
North America, including Canada, Mexico and the United States, is the largest component of the directional media market. It accounted for an estimated 56 percent of the global directional media market in 2004, or US$16.3 billion. Alone, the U.S. drove 92 percent of the total revenue in 2004. We forecast directional media in North America to reach US$22.2 billion by 2009 (CAGR 6.5 percent) with traditional print Yellow Pages being responsible for 75 percent.