Kelsey Report® White Paper
Global Yellow Pages, Local Search and Classifieds Forecast, 2005-2010
Charles Laughlin,Neal Polachek , 2/24/2006
The following is a summary of the key findings from this White paper:
- The definition of local search has changed with this years forecast. Local search now comprises Internet Yellow Pages, local commercial search and wireless directories. In last years forecast, these three elements were referred to as digital directional media.
- This years forecast includes The Kelsey Groups first ever global print and online classifieds revenue forecast. The reasoning for this addition is the increasingly blurry line that exists between online Yellow Pages and classifieds. TKG estimates global classified advertising totaled US$79.4 billion in 2005 and will decline at a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 0.2 percent to reach US$78.5 billion in 2010.
- According to TKGs calculations, at the end of 2005 global Yellow Pages and local search revenues totaled US$29.7 billion, a 3.9 percent increase over 2004. By the end of 2010, the global Yellow Pages and local search market will grow to more than US$41.3 billion at a CAGR of 6.8 percent.
- Global print Yellow Pages revenues totaled US$26.3 billion in 2005, a 1 percent increase over 2004. TKG expects global print Yellow Pages revenues will grow at a 1.5 percent CAGR to reach US$28.4 billion by 2010.
- In 2005, global local search (see new definition above) expanded 33.4 percent to US$3.4 billion. TKG forecasts global local search will grow at a CAGR of more than 30 percent to just under US$13 billion by 2010.
- Also new in this years forecast is TKGs view of the mix between fixed and performance-based advertising models and, within performance-based advertising, the split between pay-per-click and pay-per-phone-call models. Due to the limited availability of data, we have estimated these splits for the U.S. market only.
- TKG forecasts that by 2010 the split for all Yellow Pages and local search revenues will be 26 percent performance-based and 74 percent fixed pricing.
- We expect global Yellow Pages and local search to gain share relative to the total global advertising market, increasing from an estimated 5.2 percent in 2005 to 5.9 percent in 2010.
- Yellow Pages and local search in North America, including Canada, Mexico and the United States, grew 2.9 percent to US$16.7 billion in 2005. TKG forecasts North American revenues will reach US$23.6 billion in 2010, a CAGR of 7.2 percent. The United States market accounted for more than 90 percent of total North American revenues in 2005.
- According to TKGs calculations, the U.S. Yellow Pages and local search market grew 2.7 percent in 2005 to US$15.3 billion. We expect the U.S. market will expand to US$21.3 billion by 2010, a CAGR of 6.9 percent.
- U.S. print revenues increased 0.3 percent to an estimated US$14.3 billion in 2005. TKG forecasts U.S. print revenues will grow at a CAGR of 1.2 percent through 2010, reaching US$15.2 billion. Continuing expansion among U.S. competitive publishers will drive the growth of print Yellow Pages for the forecast period.
- TKG calculates European Yellow Pages and local search revenues increased 4.2 percent in 2005 to US$9.2 billion. By 2010, TKG forecasts European revenues will climb to US$12.6 billion, a 6.6 percent CAGR.
- TKG estimates Asia-Pacific Rim Yellow Pages and local search revenues rose 7.8 percent in 2005 to US$3.1 billion. By 2010, TKG forecasts Asia-Pacific Rim revenues will reach US$4.1 billion, a 5.8 percent CAGR.
- TKG calculates Latin American Yellow Pages and local search revenues climbed 5 percent in 2005 to US$480 million. By 2010, TKG forecasts Latin American revenues will be US$631 million, a 5.6 percent CAGR.
- TKG estimates Rest of World Yellow Pages and local search revenues increased 6.1 percent in 2005 to US$252 million. By 2010, TKG forecasts Rest of World revenues will rise to US$338 million, a 6.1 percent CAGR.
Copyright � 2005 The Kelsey Group. All
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any liability for direct, indirect or consequential damages that may result
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